The first post in this series at The Next Hurrah came on June 17, 2005, when few thought the Dems could take the House. Now, it is hard to imagine how the Dems can fail to win 15 seats, and my prediction (I'm always an optimist) is that it is likely the Dems can take 35 seats, pushing the GOP back under 200 (it would be 198-237) and giving the Dems a bigger margin than the GOP had in 1994, that watershed year when the House went to 204D-230R-1I. Since that first post, many more seats have become competitive, and many more are now leaning Dem.
So how will it unfold? We should know by midnight EST, when (if) results from upstate NY and most of the Mountain West are in, if the Dems are going to make it, but some races may not be known until Wednesday, and in close races expect demands for a recount, legal challenges and the like. This analysis will proceed by geography, timezones and poll closings, not tossups, leans and likelies. I see overall Ohio Valley (IN, KY & OH) 7-8 seats, South 3-4 seats, Northeast 9-10 seats, Central 5-6 seats, and West 8-9 seats. Below is a seat-by-seat analysis.
